In this first video exclusively for members, Super Screener author Mike Shutty and Horse Racing Nation’s Mark Midland talk Breeders’ Cup Mile! Is Wise Dan once again the horse to beat? Find out what contenders meet key Screener criteria and what longshots you should have on your tickets!

Click the link to go directly to the video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=scsM0YBuXP8

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We think the Super Screener’s insights are so good, you just have to see them for yourself! See the Screener criteria that you will get with EVERY RACE when you get the Breeders’ Cup Super Screener and get the insights you need to cash big on this year’s highly-competitive edition!

This race includes:

- Proven Screener criteria

- Horse-by-horse analysis

- One-click video replays

- Spread Report

- Multi-race wager strategies

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The complete 2013 Breeders’ Cup Super Screener … GET IT NOW!

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The post position draw is today for the Classic and Distaff, and in honor of that, Super Screener author Mike Shutty has another video! This time, Mike tells you which Classic contender to avoid – and it may surprise you!

Watch it Now!

Want more?

Breeders’ Cup 2013 Super Screener Includes:

- Proven Screener criteria

- Horse-by-horse, race-by-race analysis

- One-click video replays

- Recommended wagers for all budgets

+ More!

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Which of the dozen Sprint contenders meet key Screener criteria? Super Screener author Mike Shutty and Horse Racing Nation’s Mark Midland talk Breeders’ Cup Sprint in this new video!

Like what you see? There’s more for Super Screener Members!

Mike Shutty tells you how to CRUSH the Derby with the PROVEN FORMULA for Cashing Big Tickets -
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The Kentucky Derby Super Screener crushed the 2014 Kentucky Derby by cashing a $2 Exacta that paid $340, $7 in Trifectas worth $11,284 in total, and a $1 Superfecta worth $7,691. In total, the Super Screener tickets cashed for $19,315!  At the bottom is a full chart of the recommended tickets.

Rave reviews are already coming in from readers who hit the race, like these:

And this amazing score from NY!

Steve won a bundle on the Kentucky Derby

Here are the full list of recommended tickets:

Here is the Super Screener ranking of the Derby field:

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Click here to get on the PREAKNESS list

Fresh after crushing the 2014 Kentucky Derby with over $19,000 in winning tickets, the Super Screener correctly identified the top 4 Preakness finishers – almost in exact order!

The Preakness screener correctly ranked California Chrome first and General A Rod fourth, and flipped Ride On Curlin (2nd) and Social Inclusion (3rd).  Here is the complete ranking.

Putting the tickets together, the Super Screener recommended a collection of Preakness wagers grouped into three different levels.  Below is the complete list of recommended Preakness tickets:

With California Chrome winning as the overwhelming favorite, it was a difficult task to make money on the Preakness.  But both the small and large wagering bundles doubled their investment on the race!   The medium bundle cashed for $3.50 in Trifectas but did not quite return the investment.

The highlight of the wagering recommendations was a $10 Trifecta wheel 3 with 10 with 1,2,7,8 which hit and paid $390!

Here are some of the reader’s reactions below:

For readers that played the Super Screener Preakness Picks, we’d love to read your comments below.

The Belmont Stakes figures to be more exciting than ever this year with the Triple Crown on the line and an all-star field assembling to go against California Chrome.  The Belmont Stakes Super Screener will be available the Monday of Belmont Stakes week.  Good Luck!

Click here to get on the Belmont list!

The 2014 Belmont Stakes may seem like it’s all California Chrome - but “Test of the Champion” is by no means a given for the Derby and Preakness winner!  The Super Screener – says it’s not a sure thing for the Triple Crown hopeful. The opportunity for big scores is strong -

 Watch the Video to Find Out How!

The question resurfaces this time each year…which running style is best suited for winning the Belmont? In doing some research a few years ago for the Belmont Stakes Super Screener, we extended that question to include which energy distribution (running style) profiles account for the four available slots in the Belmont Stakes Superfecta? The answer to both questions was somewhat surprising.

Going back over the past 14 years, we captured the energy distribution profiles for each of the first four finishers of the Belmont Stakes. We classified horses into four energy distribution categories using their position at the 6-furlong mark.

Here are some interesting conclusions we can take away from this chart:

• Most winners (8 of 14) are Mid-pack Closer types sitting 3 to 5 lengths off the lead in the early stages of the race.

• The only “Deep” Closers that managed to win in the past 14 years were Afleet Alex and Jazil and neither of these colts were more than 8 lengths off the lead early on.

•  The bottom of the Trifecta is where you are likely to see a Deep Closer finish (8 of 14), yet, there were only 2 Deep Closers that accounted for the bottom of the Superfecta.

• 75% of all Superfecta positions are filled by a Mid-pack Closer or Deep Closer!

• The Pace player managed to hit the Superfecta in 8 of the past 14 Belmont Stakes but accounted for only two of the victories. A place finish was far more likely with half of those 8 Pace setters finishing second.

• Pressers accounted for only 5 of the available 56 Superfecta slot opportunities making it the least desirable energy distribution profile in the  past 14 runnings of the Belmont Stakes.

• Only 2 of the past 14 Belmont Stakes races featured more than one Pace/Presser type hitting the Superfecta and that occurred in the only two races that came up sloppy over the past 14 years (2011 and 2003).

• The win spot accounted for the most double-digit odds winners (8 of 14).

•  At least one 15-1+ long shot hit the board in 9 of the past 14 Belmont Stakes races.

So, why is it that as of late, Pace and especially Presser types have struggled to make an impact in win spot and across all of the other Superfecta slots? I believe there are two clear reasons.
1. Belmont field sizes today are much larger than what past Triple Crown winners  encountered…often featuring 12 or more participants in today’s fields. There has been no Triple Crown winner in history that faced a field of more than 8 horses in the Belmont Stakes. This difference in field sizes has a significant impact on race shape and pace pressure in today’s larger Belmont fields.
2. There is far more parity across today’s Belmont Stakes fields than there was even as recently as 20 years ago when there was a lot of separation between the elite 3 year-olds and the also rans.

Want MORE? Get The 2014 Belmont Super Screener NOW!

Was your Triple Crown this good? Super Screener crushed the Kentucky Derby for over $19,000! You don’t have to wait ’til next May to cash big – the Breeder’s Cup is just around the corner!

Mike Shutty, Super Screener author, is hard at work on this year’s Breeders’ Cup book. As new horses win their way into the championships each week, it adds new layers to the puzzle that will unfold for players Oct. 31-Nov. 1. Cut through the hype and toss contenders with confidence! The Super Screener is your guide to identifying the live longshots that can make your Breeders’ Cup a winning one!

How did we do last year? Click Here to get the complete recap of Super Screener Breeders’ Cup 2013!

Sign Up Now and Get The Breeders’ CUp SUper Screener FIRST!

The Super Screener has had many big hits over the years, including 2011 Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, at 21-1. Here are the latest hits over the past 18 months!

Belmont 2013

“The 2013 Belmont Super Screener crushed the race with a top pick of 12-1 longshot Palace Malice to win!”

See more winners from Belmont 2013 here!

Breeders’ Cup 2013

8 Top Selection Winners

$10,000 PROFIT On a SINGLE RACE

More Breeders’ Cup 2013 results here!

Kentucky Derby 2014

Nailed the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta!

Steve won a bundle on the Kentucky Derby

More Kentucky Derby 2014 testimonials here!

Preakness 2014

The Preakness screener correctly ranked California Chrome first and General A Rod fourth, and flipped Ride On Curlin (2nd) and Social Inclusion (3rd).

More Preakness brags here!

Wouldn’t you like to be featured here next? The 2014 Breeders’ Cup Super Screener is available SOON!

The 2014 Breeders’ Cup Super Screener is NOW AVAILABLE!

This PROVEN system for crushing the biggest races is BACK for the Breeders’ Cup after a smashing spring that scored an amazing $19,000 hit in the Kentucky Derby!

What is the Super Screener?

– A proven system – based on years of analysis and results – to narrow down the field
– Shows you what’s important – and what’s not – for EVERY Breeders’ Cup race
– Reveals the bad favorites – who to use and who to toss
– Tells you who the pretenders are so you can instantly lower the cost of your wagers
– Uncovers the live longshots you can use to boost payoffs up to 10x

Check out how the Super Screener won $10,000 on a Single Race at last year’s Breeders’ Cup in this video!

Stop ripping tickets and start cashing them – get the Breeders’ Cup Super Screener!

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This year’s Breeders’ Cup races are deeper and more contentious than ever!  So watch now to get those favorites to toss!

These “Favorites To Toss” videos have had incredible success with 12 of the 14 named horses in the past few years all missing the entire Superfecta.  Watch it now!

SUPER SCREENING THE KENTUCKY DERBY PREPS

G3 El Camino Real Stakes

The G3 El Camino Real Stakes run at 1 1/8 miles on the Golden Gate Tapeta surface is good for 10 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner. This race does not feature a top 20 horse in our 2015 Horse Racing Nation Kentucky Derby rankings, however. http://www.horseracingnation.com/p/c/kentucky_derby_2015_contenders.

Most of the field, of course, features those 3 year-olds that prefer turf or synthetic courses. Very surprised to see #10 Mischief Clem here as his best races are clearly on the dirt at Santa Anita.

Not a crazy pace set up here so you have to favor horses with more of a pressing style though on this surface at the route distance, off-the-pace horses have the edge.

The Super Screener will favor horses with superior BRIS pace figures especially in the second call and late pace categories. Horses will be rated off their turf and synthetic races and two-turn experience is a must here. Under that criteria, #5 Cross the Line, #3 Metaboss and #7 Soul Driver make up the top three win contenders. #9 Conquest Typhoon deserves consideration as well due to the pairing of 95+ late pace figures and the drop against easier.

Rating the field, we come up with the following Super Screener assessment:

WIN CONTENDERS

#5 Cross the Line 5-1

#3 Metaboss 8-1

BOARD HITTERS

#7 Soul Driver 10-1

#9 Conquest Typhoon 5-2

Let’s break down the El Camino Real Stakes and assess the quality of this Derby Prep race:

Golden Gate – G3 El Camino Real Stakes – 1 1/8 miles synthetic

Field Size = 10

Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 1

Number of Graded Stakes Placed: 1

Number of Graded Stakes Starters: 2

BRIS Pace Par:  First Call = 91; Second Call = 98; Final = 98

Projected Pace:  First Call = 91; Second Call = 96; Final = 92

Energy Distribution Profile of Field: Favors horses that will press or come from off the pace

Morning Line Favorite: Conquest Typhoon (CURRENT HRN RANKING: 23)

Super Screener Top Three Picks: Cross the Line, Metaboss, Soul Driver

Hit-the-Board Bomber Pick:  Soul Driver

SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING = D

Notes:  This will probably not be remembered as a serious prep for the Kentucky Derby as the field if loaded with turf/synthetic types that are just trying to grab a decent purse. Just can’t see any in here making and impact down the line.

POST RACE RECAP

The race came up pretty much as expected with the Super Screener top four selections making up the top five finishers. In the end, nothing happened here that would convince us this was a prep race with any type of impact down the line.

CHART: http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/GG021415USA7.pdf

WINNER: Metaboss

BRIS PACE/FINAL PARS:                              1^st Call = 91; 2^nd Call = 98; Final = 98

BRIS PROJECTED PACE/FINAL PARS:        1^st Call = 91; 2^nd Call = 96; Final = 92

BRIS ACTUAL PACE/FINAL PARS:               1^st Call = 93; 2^nd Call = 101; Final = 93

TRACK BIAS: Favored those that could come off the pace

TOUGH TRIP: None

IMPRESSIVE EFFORT: None

SUPER SCREENER PRE-RACE QUALITY RATING: D

SUPER SCREENER POST-RACE QUALITY RATING: D

SUPER SCREENING THE KENTUCKY DERBY PREPS

G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes

This key prep features 8 three year-olds and draws 5 of the top 6 finishers in the G2 Holy Bull Stakes run at Gulfstream Park a month ago. It is the first of the Kentucky Derby preps to offer 50 points to the winner which essentially ensures a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Of the new shooters, Todd Pletcher’s trainee, #5 Itsaknockout will take some interest off that really nice looking win back in early January. The Super Screener will be taking a hard look at #4 Gorgeous Bird, a sharp runaway winner of an Optional Claiming event run on the same day as the Holy Bull. This race features the winner of the Holy Bull, Upstart, which is currently the #1 ranked horse on 2015 Horse Racing Nation Kentucky Derby rankings while Frosted sits in the #12 spot http://www.horseracingnation.com/p/c/kentucky_derby_2015_contenders.

Super Screener projects a very similar set up to the Holy Bull Stakes with #2 Bluegrass Singer setting the pace on the rail with #1 Juan and Bina, #5 Itsaknockout and #7 Upstart pressing the pace. The pace projects a bit quicker than par but pressure will be moderate so no one will steal the race and a deep closer will struggle to catch the win spot.

The Super Screener will favor horses with two-turn dirt route experience, presser to off-the-pace energy distribution profiles and favorable progressions in form cycle. Under that criteria, #7 Upstart, #5 Itsaknockout and #6 Frosted make up the top three win contenders. #4 Gorgeous Bird projects to have another move forward here and will make an impact at the bottom of exotics. #6 Frosted projects to be the horse that will produce the biggest move forward of this bunch. #2 Bluegrass Singer looks like he may have peaked and could really use a break after a steady eight-race campaign to date.

Rating the field, we come up with the following Super Screener assessment:

WIN CONTENDERS

#7 Upstart 4-5

#5 Itsaknockout 5-1

BOARD HITTERS

#6 Frosted 10-1

#4 Gorgeous Bird 12-1

Let’s break down the Fountain of Youth Stakes and assess the quality of this Derby Prep race:

Gulfstream Park – G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes – 1 1/16 miles

Field Size = 8

Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 1

Number of Graded Stakes Placed: 4

Number of Graded Stakes Starters: 6

BRIS Pace Par:  First Call = 93; Second Call = 101; Final = 101

Projected Pace:  First Call = 97; Second Call = 106; Final = 106

Energy Distribution Profile of Field: Favors horses that will press or come from off the pace

Morning Line Favorite: Upstart (CURRENT HRN RANKING: 1)

Super Screener Top Three Picks: Upstart, Itsaknockout, Frosted

Hit-the-Board Bomber Pick:  Gorgeous Bird

SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING = A

Notes:  #7 Upstart ran a lifetime top in the Holy Bull Stakes last out. It will be interesting to see if he can hold that top or perhaps regresses a bit. Even if he finishes second, he will be in great shape on the Kentucky Derby points system. No question, the margin of victory in the Fountain of Youth Stakes will be much narrower than the 5.5 lengths that separated Upstart and Frosted in the in the Holy Bull.

POST RACE RECAP

The race set up as anticipated with a quicker-than-par pace for this kind and our top two Super Screener choices finishing 1-2.  The hot pace took it’s toll on the front runners setting the race up well for the top two finishers.  They too were tired, especially Upstart who was lugging out late interfering with Itsaknockout and suffering the DQ.  Upstart was pretty tired coming out of the Holy Bull and this race had to take a lot out of him.  If he goes in the Florida Derby or elsewhere, the Super Screener will be discounting his chances.   Frammento ran a better than it looked stretch run.  No question he was motoring late but it was more of an optical illusion as those around him were tiring badly.  We are taking this race down from Super Screener Quality Rating of an A to a final rating of a B+

CHART: http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=GP&raceDate=02/21/2015&cy=USA&rn=11

WINNER: Itsaknockout (via disqualification of first place finisher, Upstart)

BRIS PACE/FINAL PARS:                                 1^st Call = 93; 2^nd Call = 101; Final = 101

BRIS PROJECTED PACE/FINAL PARS:        1^st Call = 97; 2^nd Call = 106: Final = 106

BRIS ACTUAL PACE/FINAL PARS:                1^st Call = 98 ; 2^nd Call = 109; Final = 95

TRACK BIAS: Slightly favored those near the front.

TOUGH TRIP: Bluegrass Singer cut brutal fractions and had nothing left in the end.  Itsaknockout and Upstart but ran close to that hot pace and were clearly tired by mid-stretch.

IMPRESSIVE EFFORT: None

SUPER SCREENER PRE-RACE QUALITY RATING: A

SUPER SCREENER POST-RACE QUALITY RATING B+

SUPER SCREENING THE KENTUCKY DERBY PREPS

G2 Risen Star Stakes

This useful Derby prep follows the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes as another Kentucky Derby 50 pointer to the winner which creates a “win and you’re in” opportunity for the horse that can take down the Risen Star. It is a very competitive field of 11 three year-olds and, unlike most Kentucky Derby Preps, it is an interesting betting affair to boot.

The headliner in here is #10 International Star, a colt that has struggled to get respect and may still offer value in this field. Looked super in coming off the break to win the LeComte Stakes handily. This will be the Super Screener top choice as another move forward is projected today and he possesses that ideal “tactical” energy distribution profile which will enable him to prosper under various pace conditions. He is currently ranked 26^th on the 2015 Horse Racing Nation Kentucky Derby rankings http://www.horseracingnation.com/p/c/kentucky_derby_2015_contenders.

Pace here projects to be modest with low pressure. #2 Tiznow RJ, will benefit from the modest pace and should move forward off that third place finish in the LeComte Stakes. The California shipper, #1 St. Joe Bay and #4 J S Bach should also find pace conditions favorable to their early energy distribution profiles.

Second choice to #10 International Star will be the horse that finished just behind him in the LeComte, #6 War Story. That one had a pretty tough trip in that affair and projects to move solidly forward today.

The Super Screener will favor horses with balance across their 1^st Call, 2^nd Call and Late Pace categories that are presser or off-the-pace types that have shown a previous affinity for the racing surface. California shippers typically do well on this course and will be given additional consideration. Horses coming off a second or third start off a lay off move up at this point in the Derby preps and have an increasing advantage over horses making their first start off a vacation.

Rating the field, we come up with the following Super Screener assessment:

WIN CONTENDERS

#10 International Star 9-2

#6 War Story 5-1

BOARD HITTERS

#2 Tiznow R J

#1 St. Joe Bay 12-1

#3 Bluff 12-1
#4 J S Bach 5-1

#5 Imperia 7-2

Let’s break down the Risen Star Stakes and assess the quality of this Derby Prep race:

Fair Grounds – G2 Risen Star Stakes – 1 1/16 Miles

Field Size = 11

Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 2

Number of Graded Stakes Placed: 6

Number of Graded Stakes Starters: 7

BRIS Pace Par:  First Call = 93; Second Call = 101; Final = 101

Projected Pace:  First Call = 93; Second Call = 94; Final = 101

Energy Distribution Profile of Field: Favors horses that will balance across pace categories

Morning Line Favorite: International Star (CURRENT HRN RANKING: 26)

Super Screener Top Three Picks: International Star, War Story, Tiznow R J

Hit-the-Board Bomber Pick: St. Joe Bay

SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING = B+

Notes:  If the slower pace scenario manifests, it will be interesting to see how some of the favorites in here handle that condition. Also, we’ll be watching St. Joe Bay to see how California form transfer to all track eastward.

POST RACE RECAP

Nothing very notable about the outcome of this race as it met all expectations with the exception of the much faster than projected pace.  The top two Super Screener picks finished 1-2.  Would have liked to have seen International Star finish the race with a bit more authority and stronger BRIS Late Pace figures.  If he can move 4 lengths better than this effort in his final Kentucky Derby prep, he becomes a legitimate Kentucky Derby threat.  For now, looks more like a grinder that would finish in the top half of the Derby field and maybe the bottom of the Superfecta if the race were to be run in a few weeks.  We have reduced our final Super Screener Prep Quality Rating from a B+ to a B.

CHART: http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=FG&raceDate=02/21/2015&cy=USA&rn=11

WINNER: International Star

BRIS PACE/FINAL PARS:                              1^st Call = 93; 2^nd Call = 101; Final = 101

BRIS PROJECTED PACE/FINAL PARS:        1^st Call = 93; 2^nd Call = 94; Final = 101

BRIS ACTUAL PACE/FINAL PARS:                1^st Call = 102; 2^nd Call = 105; Final = 97

TRACK BIAS: None

TOUGH TRIP: None

IMPRESSIVE EFFORT:  None

SUPER SCREENER PRE-RACE QUALITY RATING: B+

SUPER SCREENER POST-RACE QUALITY RATING: B

SUPER SCREENING THE KENTUCKY DERBY PREPS

G3 Southwest Stakes

The G3 Southwest Stakes was a victim of a card cancelation last Monday due to nasty winter weather in the Hot Springs area and was moved to this Sunday as the feature race. Unlike the Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Risen Stars Stakes which offer 50 Kentucky Derby qualifier points, the Southwest Stakes is the last of the preps to offer 10 qualifier points to the winner.

The top four finishers of the locally run Smarty Jones Stakes face off again and will engage seven other rivals including shippers from Florida, New York and Kentucky. The Super Screener does not project a lot of pace pressure here and #11 Mr. Z certainly possesses the superior pace figures against these but he’ll also be fighting against what appears to be a little post-peak decline in form. However, with Lukas trainees, you never really know.

#6 Far Right was a sharp winner of the Smarty Jones Stakes and actually projects to move forward again off that effort. Very dangerous win contender and he currently sits at #9 on the 2015 Horse Racing Nation Derby rankings while #11 Mr. Z sits a #18 http://www.horseracingnation.com/p/c/kentucky_derby_2015_contenders.

While #11 Mr. Z and even more so, #6 Far Right are key contenders in this race, the Super Screener is tabbing #4 Private Prospect, 4^th place finisher behind the top pair last out, as the top win contender in the field. He is making his second start off the 12-week layoff and a strong move forward today is anticipated. In addition, based on the likely pace set up, look for #4 Private Prospect to sit in an ideal stalking position behind #11 Mr. Z and just to the outside of #1 Bayerd.

The Super Screener’s long shot bomber pick in here will be #3 Hillbilly Royalty out of the barn of Donnie Von Hemel. This gelding is undefeated in two lifetime starts against much easier but his form and energy distribution profile suggest he can take a piece of this at a price.

The Super Screener will favor horses with two-turn dirt route experience, presser energy distribution profiles, previous success on the Oaklawn Park surface, favorable progressions in form cycle and strong recent works…and for this race and on this dirt course, the Super Screener will be discounting the chances of any shipper.

Rating the field, we come up with the following Super Screener assessment:

WIN CONTENDERS

#4 Private Prospect 8-1

#6 Far Right 5-2

BOARD HITTERS

#11 Mr. Z 3-1

#3 Hillbilly Royalty 15-1

#1 Bayerd 5-1

Let’s break down the G3 Southwest Stakes and assess the quality of this Derby Prep race:

Oaklawn Park – G3 Southwest Stakes – 1 1/16 Miles

Field Size = 8

Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 0

Number of Graded Stakes Placed: 5

Number of Graded Stakes Starters: 6

BRIS Pace Par:  First Call = 91; Second Call = 98; Final = 98

Projected Pace:  First Call = 95; Second Call = 96; Final = 97

Energy Distribution Profile of Field: Mostly off the pace and closer types so pressers are favored

Morning Line Favorite: Far Right (CURRENT HRN RANKING: 9)

Super Screener Top Three Picks: Private Prospect, Far Right, Mr. Z

Hit-the-Board Bomber Pick:  Hillbilly Royalty

SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING = C

Notes:  Mr. Z appears vulnerable here and is starting to look like one that lacks some heart with just 1 win in 10 starts. The field overall is fairly anemic and it is difficult to see any of these making an impact on the first Saturday of May at this early juncture

POST RACE RECAP

Not sure which day the track conditions at Oaklawn were worse, when the Southwest Stakes was originally schedule for President’s Day 2/16/15 or on Sunday.  There was a clearly pronounced bias to off the pace and closer types primarily running a few lengths off the rail on the off going.  Nothing materialized in this race to suggest it was better than the C rating we originally gave to it.   Based on the outcome, we actually downgraded it a bit to a C-.

CHART: http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=OP&raceDate=02/22/2015&cy=USA&rn=8

WINNER: Far Right

BRIS PACE/FINAL PARS:                              1^st Call = 91; 2^nd Call = 98; Final = 98

BRIS PROJECTED PACE/FINAL PARS:        1^st Call = 95; 2^nd Call = 96: Final = 96

BRIS ACTUAL PACE/FINAL PARS:                1^st Call = 101 ; 2^nd Call = 99    ; Final = 93

TRACK BIAS:  The off-track favored off the pace and closer types

TOUGH TRIP: Far Right was pinched back at the start to be last early on but followed The Truth or Else’s big move on the outside and then ducked to the rail (which was not the place to be) and willingly prevailed.

IMPRESSIVE EFFORT: Mr. Z ran very well against a bias against wire types while cutting hot fractions.  The Truth or Else looked impressive but he ran with the bias on the better part of the track and without interruption in the stretch for a better-than-it-looked effort.

SUPER SCREENER PRE-RACE QUALITY RATING: C

SUPER SCREENER POST-RACE QUALITY RATING: C-

SUPER SCREENING THE KENTUCKY DERBY PREPS

G3 Gotham Stakes

The 2^nd to 4^th place finishers in the G3 Withers Stakes reunite to contest 7 other rivals including a three-horse Repole Stable coupling from the barn of Todd Pletcher. Of that coupled trio, the Super Screener gives the nod to the #1 Dontbetwithbruno due to the balanced energy distribution in two-turn routes and good form cycle pattern.   The pace in this one projects to be near par but with significant pressure. The field is pretty evenly matched with the Withers runners not necessarily sitting above the rest of this field. This one has the feel of a surprise winner emerging from the recent maiden graduate pool.

Favorites here will be #4 El Kabeir and #3 Classy Class seeking amends from tough losses at the hands of that eye-catching, troubled-trip late move of Far From Over. #4 El Kabeir is currently ranked #6 on the 2015 Horse Racing Nation Derby rankings http://www.horseracingnation.com/p/c/kentucky_derby_2015_contenders.

Those contesting the early pace include #1X Blame Jim, #3 Classy Class, #4 El Kabeir and #7 Toasting Master. Of that bunch all but #4 El Kabeir project to move forward. The top Super Screener choice will be a bit of a value play in the 4^th place finisher of the Withers Stakes, #8 Tencendur. Super Screener projects this colt will benefit most by and respond best to the early pace pressure. Barn adds blinkers and the works since the Withers have been sizzling. Behind this one, the Super Screener favors the aforementioned #1 Dontbetwithbruno. Rounding out the top three, the Super Screener is landing on #3 Classy Class on a projected strong move forward off that layoff. This colt really needed that Withers race.

The Super Screener’s long shot bomber picks in here will be #6 Tiz Shea D the sprint stretcher out of the Bill Mott barn. The projection is that despite the lack of route experience, this colt could stick around for a price at a huge price due to pretty impressive total energy reserves. #2 Combat Diver is a likely “pick up the pieces” type that could bump up for the bottom of Trifecta’s and Superfecta’s.

At this stage of the prep season and given the pressured pace scenario of this affair, the Super Screener will favor horses with two-turn dirt route experience, balanced energy distribution profiles, previous success on the Aqueduct surface, favorable progressions in form cycle and strong recent works. Super Screener knocks go to #4 El Kabeir who may have peaked and will experience massive early pressure and #5 Lieutenant Colonel who may turn out to be a better sprinter.

Rating the field, we come up with the following Super Screener assessment:

WIN CONTENDERS

#8 Tencendur 8-1

#1 Dontbetwithbruno 5-1
#3 Classy Class 7-2

BOARD HITTERS

#2 Combat Diver

#6 Tiz Shea D

#4 El Kabeir

Let’s break down the G3 Gotham Stakes and assess the quality of this Derby Prep race:

Aqueduct– G3 Gotham Stakes – 1 1/16 Miles

Field Size = 10

Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 1

Number of Graded Stakes Placed: 3

Number of Graded Stakes Starters: 4

BRIS Pace Par:  First Call = 91; Second Call = 98; Final = 98

Projected Pace:  First Call = 91; Second Call = 98; Final = 98

Energy Distribution Profile of Field: Very heavily weighted to presser types

Morning Line Favorite: El Kabeir (CURRENT HRN RANKING: 6)

Super Screener Top Three Picks: Tencendur, Dontbetwithbruno, Classy Class

Hit-the-Board Bomber Pick:  Combat Diver and Tiz Shea D

SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING = C+

Notes:  Withers Stakes combatants, El Kabeir appears vulnerable as the favorite here but Classy Class projects to move forward. Race seems to be setting up for an “unknown” type with some balanced or late energy distribution.

POST RACE RECAP

CHART:

WINNER:

BRIS PACE/FINAL PARS:                              1^st Call = 91; 2^nd Call = 98; Final = 98

BRIS PROJECTED PACE/FINAL PARS:        1^st Call = 91; 2^nd Call = 98: Final = 98

BRIS ACTUAL PACE/FINAL PARS:                1^st Call = ; 2^nd Call =      ; Final =

TRACK BIAS:

TOUGH TRIP:

IMPRESSIVE EFFORT:

SUPER SCREENER PRE-RACE QUALITY RATING: C+

SUPER SCREENER POST-RACE QUALITY RATING:

SUPER SCREENING THE KENTUCKY DERBY PREPS

G2 Tampa Bay Derby Stakes

This one is shaping up to be quite a salty little prep race with the formidable and prohibitive favorite, #3 Carpe Diem making his 2015 debut and the top 4 finishers of the G3 Sam Davis Stakes returning to try and add more qualifying Kentucky Derby points. Winners of the big three preps this Saturday will earn 50 points and will assure themselves a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.

The pace is this one will certainly be snappier than the crawl that characterized the Sam Davis Stakes, but yet it still projects to settle at something below par with modest pace pressure.

The prohibitive favorite will be the Pletcher-trained, second place finisher in the swift-paced Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He will be coming off a 4-month layoff and only got back to training as of mid-January. Work pattern since has been strong and he needs to catch up a bit and grab some valuable Kentucky Derby points right now. Currently, #3 Carpe Diem is ranked #11 on the 2015 Horse Racing Nation Derby rankings while #2 Ocean Knight is ranked #7 http://www.horseracingnation.com/p/c/kentucky_derby_2015_contenders.

Basically, the “speed” here comprises #3 Carpe Diem, #5 My Johnny Be Good and #6 Super Colossal. Your top late energy distribution types are #7 Great Stuff and #9 Danzig Moon. The Super Screener is projecting that #3 Carpe Diem is the deserved favorite and #2 Ocean Knight earns a shot at matching or building off that sharp last effort. The Super Screener is very bullish on the long shot #9 Danzig Moon out of the Mark Casse barn. That maiden win at Gulfstream was super impressive, especially since it came after the 100+ day layoff. He only matched his previous best and the sharp works only lend more confidence to projecting a major move forward in this prep. The Super Screener is going to give Ami’s Flatter another shot here as she regressed some off that strong Gulfstream Park effort and she gets blinkers and Lasix for the first time. Look for a much better showing today.

Most in here have some recency to their advantage which is key at this stage of the prep season. Carpe Diem gets a Super Screener knock for the long layoff but the quality advantage cannot be denied. The Super Screener will favor horses with two-turn dirt route experience, balanced energy distribution profiles with lower spreads between the BRIS second call pace and late pace figures, shippers, especially from GP, favorable progressions in form cycle and strong recent works.

Rating the field, we come up with the following Super Screener assessment:

WIN CONTENDERS

#3 Carpe Diem 4-5

#9 Danzig Moon 14-1
#2 Ocean Knight 4-1

BOARD HITTERS

#4 Ami’s Flatter 15-1

#6 Super Colossal 18-1

Let’s break down the G2 Tampa Bay Derby Stakes and assess the quality of this Derby Prep race:

Tampa Bay Downs– G2 Tampa Bay Derby – 1 1/16 Miles

Field Size = 9

Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 2

Number of Graded Stakes Placed: 4

Number of Graded Stakes Starters: 7

BRIS Pace Par:  First Call = 92; Second Call = 100; Final = 100

Projected Pace:  First Call = 93; Second Call = 93; Final = 101

Energy Distribution Profile of Field: Leans more to the presser types but balanced overall

Morning Line Favorite: Carpe Diem (CURRENT HRN RANKING: 11)

Super Screener Top Three Picks: Carpe Diem, Danzig Moon, Ocean Knight

Hit-the-Board Bomber Pick:  Ami’s Flatter

SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING = B

Notes:  Carpe Diem needs those precious Kentucky Derby qualifying points and will have to overcome the long layoff but he exudes quality and should get the job done. It will be interesting to see how the pace develops and if it will end up being much swifter than projected.

POST RACE RECAP

CHART:

WINNER:

BRIS PACE/FINAL PARS:                              1^st Call = 92; 2^nd Call = 100; Final = 100

BRIS PROJECTED PACE/FINAL PARS:        1^st Call = 93; 2^nd Call = 93: Final = 101

BRIS ACTUAL PACE/FINAL PARS:                1^st Call = ; 2^nd Call =      ; Final =

TRACK BIAS:

TOUGH TRIP:

IMPRESSIVE EFFORT:

SUPER SCREENER PRE-RACE QUALITY RATING: B

SUPER SCREENER POST-RACE QUALITY RATING:

SUPER SCREENING THE KENTUCKY DERBY PREPS

G2 San Felipe Stakes

No question, this is one of the top preps of the year thus far and with “win and you’re in” 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points going to the winner, the battle will be fierce for top honors. Baffert’s pair will be super tough and it will be the “other” less favored colt, #1 Lord Nelson that the Super Screener will be ranking higher.

#2 Ocho Ocho Ocho is undefeated in three starts and was last seen taking down the G3 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes by the narrowest of margins over Mr. Z. He has been away from racing for over 100 days but works are super sharp, Mike Smith keeps the mount and of all of the Kentucky Derby contenders thus far, this one possesses the most impressive energy reserve and energy distribution profile. Will be very tough to beat here.

Baffert’s undefeated in four lifetime starts, #3 Dortmund, is as game as they come, and when tested, he responds and battles back which is a key Kentucky Derby contender quality. He gets another great test today but no question he is a top three contender. Currently, #2 Ocho Ocho Ocho and #3 Dortmund are ranked #14 and #1, respectively on the 2015 Horse Racing Nation Derby rankings http://www.horseracingnation.com/p/c/kentucky_derby_2015_contenders.

With the likes of #7 Bolo, #9 Sir Samson and even #2 Ocho Ocho Ocho and #3 Dortmund in the field, the pace projects to be super swift and well above par but fitting for this level of quality. Pace pressure, on the other hand, will be modest.

#1 Lord Nelson, as mentioned earlier, is being scored quite high by the Super Screener. The public will knock him for the lack of route success, but that G1 Front Runner was a super effort by any measure against stable mate monster, American Pharaoh. In the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club he lost all chance at the gate then was very wide around the far turn. Look for an outstanding effort by this underdog today.

Rating the field, we come up with the following Super Screener assessment:

WIN CONTENDERS

#2 Ocho Ocho Ocho 5-2

#1 Lord Nelson 8-1
#3 Dortmund 1-1

BOARD HITTERS

#6 Bolo

#8 Pulmarack

#9 Sir Samson

Let’s break down the G2 San Felipe Stakes and assess the quality of this Derby Prep race:

Santa Anita – G2 San Felipe Stakes – 1 1/16 Miles

Field Size = 9

Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 3

Number of Graded Stakes Placed: 4

Number of Graded Stakes Starters: 4

BRIS Pace Par:  First Call = 92; Second Call = 100; Final = 100

Projected Pace:  First Call = 101; Second Call = 105; Final = 105

Energy Distribution Profile of Field: Balanced

Morning Line Favorite: Dortmund (CURRENT HRN RANKING: 1)

Super Screener Top Three Picks: Ocho Ocho Ocho, Lord Nelson, Dortmund

Hit-the-Board Bomber Pick:  Sir Samson

SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING = A

Notes: This shapes up to be one of the strongest preps to date. It appears it is Baffert vs. Ocho Ocho Ocho with a little Bolo mystery to boot. The top three finishers here should do quite well in their final Kentucky Derby prep and this will me marked as a very key prep.

POST RACE RECAP

CHART:

WINNER:

BRIS PACE/FINAL PARS:                              1^st Call = 92; 2^nd Call = 100; Final = 100

BRIS PROJECTED PACE/FINAL PARS:        1^st Call = 101; 2^nd Call = 105: Final = 105

BRIS ACTUAL PACE/FINAL PARS:                1^st Call = ; 2^nd Call =      ; Final =

TRACK BIAS:

TOUGH TRIP:

IMPRESSIVE EFFORT:

SUPER SCREENER PRE-RACE QUALITY RATING: A

SUPER SCREENER POST-RACE QUALITY RATING: